Climate Change Working Party

Wednesday 8 September 2021 at 9.30am

 

 

AGENDA

 


Climate Change Working Party

8 September 2021

Climate Change Working Party Agenda

 

Meeting to be held via Zoom

on Wednesday 8 September 2021, commencing at 9.30am

 

Please note: working parties and working groups carry NO formal decision-making delegations from council. The purpose of the working party/group is to carry out preparatory work and discussions prior to taking matters to the full council for formal consideration and decision-making. Working party/group meetings are open to the public to attend (unless there are specific grounds under LGOIMA for the public to be excluded).

 

MEMBERSHIP OF THE Climate Change Working Party

Chairperson, Councillor Amy Macdonald

Councillor Joce Yeoman

Councillor Jack Craw

Councillor Marty Robinson

Councillor Penny Smart

TTMAC representative Thomas Hohaia

TTMAC representative Rowan Tautari

TTMAC representative Nora Rameka

Te Rūnanga o Whāingaroa Rihari Dargaville

 

 

 

KARAKIA

 

RĪMITI (ITEM)                                                                                                                                                                 Page

1.0       Ngā Mahi Whakapai/Housekeeping

2.0       Ngā Whakapahā/apologies   

3.0       Ngā Whakapuakanga/declarations of conflicts of interest

4.0       Reports

4.1       Record of Actions – 16 June 2021                                                                                                         4

4.2       Receipt of Action Sheet                                                                                                                             7

4.3       Draft Te Taitokerau Climate Adaptation Strategy                                                                         10

4.4       NRC Climate change strategy implementation update                                                               88

4.5       Sustainable Fleet Strategy and Plan                                                                                                   95

4.6       Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report update                                        101

4.7       Verbal updates                                                                                                                                         149


 

 

 

 



Climate Change Working Party                                                                                                                                  item: 4.1

8 September 2021

 

TITLE:

Record of Actions – 16 June 2021

From:

Erica Wade, Personal Assistant Environmental Services

Authorised by Group Manager/s:

Jonathan Gibbard, Group Manager - Environmental Services, on 31 August 2021

 

Whakarāpopototanga / Executive summary

The purpose of this report is to present the Record of Actions of the last meeting (attached) held on 16 June 2021 for review by the meeting.

 

Attachments/Ngā tapirihanga

Attachment 1: Record of actions - 16 June 2021   


Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.1

8 September 2021Attachment 1

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Climate Change Working Party                                                                                                                                  item: 4.2

8 September 2021

 

TITLE:

Receipt of Action Sheet

From:

Erica Wade, Personal Assistant Environmental Services

Authorised by Group Manager/s:

Jonathan Gibbard, Group Manager - Environmental Services, on 31 August 2021

 

Whakarāpopototanga / Executive summary

The purpose of this report is to enable the meeting to receive the current action sheet.

 

Nga mahi tutohutia / Recommendation

That the action sheet be received.

 

Attachments/Ngā tapirihanga

Attachment 1: Record of Actions   


Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.2

8 September 2021Attachment 1

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Climate Change Working Party                                                                                                                                  item: 4.3

8 September 2021

 

TITLE:

Draft Te Taitokerau Climate Adaptation Strategy

From:

Matt De Boer, Climate Change Resilience Coordinator

Authorised by Group Manager/s:

Jonathan Gibbard, Group Manager - Environmental Services, on 31 August 2021

 

Executive summary/Whakarāpopototanga

The impacts of climate change are already affecting people and natural systems in Northland. Climate impacts are projected to continue on an upward trend, with the expected severity of impacts depending on the success of global emissions reductions efforts.

Climate change adaptation, that is responses to the current and projected impacts of climate change, is a key responsibility for local government.

Te Taitokerau Climate Adaptation Strategy (draft) (the Strategy) has been developed by staff and was presented at a workshop of the Joint Climate Change Adaptation Committee on the 9 August. An updated version of the draft strategy was then presented to the joint committee that incorporated many of the suggestions and comments from the workshop (this is the version presented here – V2.0).

The Strategy has been developed with the knowledge that the drafting of new government legislation is likely to change the landscape within which local government will need to implement adaptation.

The purpose of the Strategy is to set the direction for a robust, collaborative approach to developing adaptation responses to the impacts of climate change in Te Taitokerau, by building a foundation for action while acknowledging the changing legislative environment and remaining agile.

Key objectives of the Strategy include:

·    improving understanding of the risks of climate change to our region

·    clarifying adaptation needs and responsibilities

·    identifying opportunities to improve local government adaptation responses

·    recommending priority actions for local government

A full-length version of the draft Strategy is presented in Attachment 1, alongside supporting documents Priority Actions (Attachment 2) and technical report Climate Risk Overview (Attachment 3). Priority Actions recommends 46 short, medium and long-term actions to help achieve the objectives of the Strategy. A conceptual summary of the draft Strategy is also presented (Attachment 4) and will be further progressed into a more publicly digestible summary of the Strategy.

The Strategy documents will undergo further editing, prior to being presented to each council for discussion in a workshop setting with elected members, tangata whenua representatives and senior management.

The final draft version of the Strategy documents will be presented to the Joint Committee at the 30 November meeting for endorsement. Once endorsed, the Strategy documents will be presented to each council for approval and adoption.

A joint staff communications working group on climate change adaptation has been established, and is developing a communications plan to assist the public release of the Strategy once adopted by all councils and will be presented to the November joint committee meeting for feedback.

 

 

Ngā mahi tūtohutia / Recommended actions

1.         That a council workshop is held in September to discuss the draft Strategy documents.

2.         That the draft Strategy is presented to the October TTMAC meeting for feedback.

 

Background/Tuhinga

Rationale

The impacts of climate change are already affecting people and natural systems in Northland. Climate impacts are projected to continue an upward trend, with the expected severity of impacts depending on the success of global emissions reductions efforts.

Climate change adaptation, that is responses to the current and projected impacts of climate change, is a key responsibility for local government, particularly as it relates to natural hazards, the provision of infrastructure and statutory planning. Climate change adaptation forms the focus of the Te Taitokerau Climate Adaptation Strategy (draft) (the Strategy) presented in this paper.

Current legislative settings provide limited direction or tools to assist councils in applying adaptation principles in practice. The Randerson review of the Resource Management Act recommended the development of new resource management legislation, that will potentially strengthen functions relating to climate change adaptation. However, key pieces of legislation including the new Climate Change Adaptation Act, a proposed funding mechanism for adaptation, the National Adaptation Plan, as well as the Spatial Planning and Built and Natural Environments Acts, are all yet to be released, resulting in some uncertainty as to the specific adaptation tools and methods local government will be able to draw on.

The Strategy has been developed with the knowledge that the drafting of new legislation is likely to change the landscape within which local government will need to implement adaptation. Regardless of these uncertainties, there are actions (no brainers) councils can take now that will help put councils and our communities in a good position to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

The express aim of the Strategy is to identify opportunities to improve the knowledge, processes, partnerships, coordination and capacity of councils. This will help ensure we are building stable foundations to respond to climate change impacts in anticipation of new legislation. A small number of recommended priority actions (e.g. review of the Regional Policy Statement) will be directly affected by new legislation; this is reflected in both the description of the action, and its delivery timeframes. Most of the actions are aimed at taking sensible steps to ensure councils are effectively and consistently building our ability to anticipate and respond to climate change impacts, and are prepared for the requirements of the new legislation.

While this Strategy focuses on Adaptation, responses by councils to climate change should also look at the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at both the organisational and community level. At present this is being pursued both at the national level, through government legislation such as the Climate Change Response  (Zero Carbon Amendment) Act and the emissions trading scheme, as well as by individual councils though operational decisions and policy settings. Work on a collaborative Northland-wide approach to emissions reductions is in initial planning stages.

Background

At a recent (9 August) Joint Committee workshop, staff from all four Northland councils presented working drafts of the Strategy alongside supporting documents Appendix 1. Priority Actions, and technical report Climate Risk Overview.

Following the workshop, the documents were updated to reflect comments and suggestions received by committee members – the updated draft documents are attached to this paper. Due to restricted timeframes, not all changes were able to be completed in full (see ‘future actions’ section below).

These documents were prepared collaboratively by staff from across the four Northland councils, working together as the joint group Climate Adaptation Te Taitokerau (CATT). The delivery of the Strategy is one of the key actions outlined in the terms of reference for CATT, and is the product of over three years of regular meetings with staff and tangata whenua representatives, sharing knowledge and understanding, developing risk assessments, adaptation methodologies and programmes, and hosting workshops across councils.

The Strategy

The purpose of the Strategy is to set the direction for a robust, collaborative approach to developing adaptation responses to the impacts of climate change in Te Taitokerau, by building a foundation for action while acknowledging the changing legislative environment and remaining agile.

Key objectives of the Strategy include:

·    improving understanding of the risks of climate change to our region

·    clarifying adaptation needs and responsibilities

·    identifying opportunities to improve local government adaptation responses

·    recommending priority actions for local government

The Strategy is set out in the following manner:

Section

Aim

Foundational elements

·      Scope and purpose

·      Whakatauki

·      Vision

·      Mission statement

·      Principles

Provides scope and strategic direction, and sets out principles

Key adaptation issues, responses and opportunities

·      Governance and management

·      Impacts on Māori

·      Coastal communities

·      Water availability

·      Natural hazards

·      Ecosystems and biosecurity

·      Public infrastructure

Discusses main themes where climate change adaptation intersects local government responsibilities. This section includes some details for different areas, as well as providing local examples. Links are given to relevant Priority Actions in Appendix 1.

Enabling effective adaptation

1.    Improving knowledge and understanding

2.    Growing relationships

3.    Reducing risk and vulnerability

4.    Building capacity

Outlines key themes and areas for action to improve councils’ adaptation responses, that are further developed in Priority Actions Appendix 1.

Appendix 1. Priority actions

Sets out specific actions to achieve above

Technical report - Climate risk overview

Provides context and background on climate change risks

 

Changes made since the workshop

Many changes were made to the draft documents following the workshop, and it is not possible to provide details of all amendments. Major changes are indicated in the below table:

 

Document component

Changes made

Additional changes needed

Scope

Reference to primary need for mitigation, adaptation being secondary, but necessary, response. Bullet points moved to ‘objectives’ heading.

 

Principles

Various amendments

 

Kaupapa

Translation added

 

Detail vs brevity of document

Full document not shortened. Additional references added.

Proposed summary document (<10 pages) with suggested format supplied (see attached Te Taitokerau Climate Adaptation Strategy Summary)

Further references required for full document.

Summary document requires completion.

Legislative changes

More reference to the purpose of the Strategy to anticipate and prepare for legislative changes and the need to review strategy as required

 

Treaty-Te Titiri references

Further references added to clarify local government responsibilities under RMA and LGA

 

Content

Further details added re biodiversity conservation, wildfire.

Reference to Department of Conservation and other documents

Reference to Deep South Challenge research

Call-out box placeholders for specific examples (e.g. Ruawai)

Additional references to Iwi-hapū planning documents

Language around infrastructure risk assessments, reference to three waters reform.

Call-out box examples to be completed

Links to priority actions

References to specific actions made in the ‘Key issues’ section

Call-out boxes placeholders for Priority actions

Additional Priority actions references required

Call-out boxes Priority actions details to be inserted

Weaving Māori narrative through document

Integration of Māori commentary throughout document

 

 

Integration of Māori commentary – more work required

Possible use of weaving or taniwha reference to be investigated

Proofreading to check macrons required

Te reo translations for headings

Consistency between documents

Headings in Strategy and Priority actions made consistent

Complete proofread and edit required

Consistency of language

Limited changes made

Complete proofread and edit required

Layout/ pictures/graphs

None

Proofreader/designer engaged

Complete set-out and design required

 

 

It was suggested at the Joint Committee workshop that both a more detailed and more concise version of the Strategy would each be useful. Staff therefore propose that a full-length version of the Strategy be developed, with additional references to research as well as links to Priority Actions. A separate summary document of under ten pages is proposed that will contain key messages, infographics and tabular information to provide a high-level overview. Examples of the proposed summary document are presented as an attachment. Please note this is shown as an example only and additional work is required to develop and complete the document.

 

Future directions

It is intended that the draft Strategy documents will have further refined prior to being presented to each council for discussion in a workshop setting with elected members, tangata whenua representatives and senior management. Comments and suggestions will be collated and incorporated into the draft documents. Where there are irreconcilable conflicting requirements between councils, differences will be noted and highlighted to the Joint Committee November meeting.

Once the final Strategy contents are drafted, the executive summary and Strategy Summary will be finalised, and forewords from the chair and deputy of the Joint Committee will be added.

The final draft version of the Strategy documents will be presented to the Joint Committee at the 30 November meeting. Once endorsed, the Strategy documents will be presented to each council for approval and adoption.

Communications

A staff joint communications working group on climate change adaptation has been established, including staff from each of the four Northland councils. The group is developing a communications plan to assist the public release of the Strategy once adopted by all councils. The group is also beginning work on developing a broader communications plan for climate change adaptation in Te Taitokerau.  This work will be presented to the November Joint Committee meeting

Ngā tapirihanga / Attachments

Attachment 1: Te Taitokerau Climate Adaptation Strategy DRAFT V2.0

Attachment 2: Te Taitokerau Climate Adaptation Strategy Appendix 1. Priority actions DRAFT V2.0

Attachment 3: Te Taitokerau Climate Adaptation Strategy Technical report Climate risk overview DRAFT

Attachment 4: Te Taitokerau Climate Adaptation Strategy Appendix 2. Summary proposed concept  

 


Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.3

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Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.3

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Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.3

8 September 2021Attachment 3

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Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.3

8 September 2021Attachment 4

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Climate Change Working Party                                                                                                                                  item: 4.4

8 September 2021

 

TITLE:

NRC Climate change strategy implementation update

From:

Matt De Boer, Climate Change Resilience Coordinator

Authorised by Group Manager/s:

Jonathan Gibbard, Group Manager - Environmental Services, on 31 August 2021

 

Whakarāpopototanga / Executive summary

Ngā Taumata o te Moana, NRC’s climate change strategy was adopted by council in July, including an implementation plan with 43 recommended actions. The attached document reports on the status of all recommended actions and is summarised below:

 

Actions

On track

Delayed/further work required

Not started

Total

Ongoing

8

47%

7

41%

2

12%

17

Year 1

4

31%

2

15%

7

54%

13

Year 2

1

13%

1

13%

6

75%

8

Year 3+

1

20%

0

0%

4

80%

5

 

The results are encouraging, showing that teams across the organisation are getting on with projects that help NRC respond to climate change.  Significant progress has been made on nearly half the ‘ongoing’ actions, as well as a number of actions deliverable in future years.

There have been some delays in progressing some ongoing and year 1 projects. Some reasons include:

·    Delays in hiring of staff

·    Covid19 restrictions

·    Need to develop programme details

Another source of delay has been the organisational restructure. The establishment of a new climate change team will enable a stronger focus on the work program, with the appointment of new LTP staff resources to progress projects and actions in the strategy to be progressed as a priority.

 

Ngā mahi tūtohutia / Recommended actions

1.         That the report ‘NRC Climate change strategy implementation update’ by Climate Change Resilience Coordinator is received.

 

 

Ngā tapirihanga / Attachments

Attachment 1: NRC climate change strategy implementation  

 


Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.4

8 September 2021Attachment 1

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Climate Change Working Party                                                                                                                                  item: 4.5

8 September 2021

 

TITLE:

Sustainable Fleet Strategy and Plan

From:

Chris McColl, Organisational Projects Specialist

Authorised by Group Manager:

Jonathan Gibbard, Group Manager - Environmental Services, on date 31 August 2021

 

The Purpose of this item is to provide you with the outcome of work undertaken to move council towards a more sustainable vehicle fleet.

 

A Sustainable Vehicle Fleet Strategy has been developed and implemented. This is a new document to move us towards a more sustainable vehicle fleet. All related documents are reviewed with the intention of reducing emissions, this has already fed into the review of our Vehicle Policy and the Fleet Lifecycle Plan.

 

The Fleet Lifecycle Plan was developed as part of an in-depth review of the vehicle fleet with a focus on fit for purpose vehicles, environmental impact, and total cost of ownership. This plan has now been implemented and puts actions to our intentions with real measurable benefits.

 

Attachments/Ngā tapirihanga

Attachment 1: Sustainable Vehicle Fleet Strategy

Attachment 2: Fleet Lifecycle Plan   


Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.5

8 September 2021Attachment 1

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Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.5

8 September 2021Attachment 2

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Climate Change Working Party                                                                                                                                  item: 4.6

8 September 2021

 

TITLE:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 report update

From:

Matt De Boer, Climate Change Resilience Coordinator

Authorised by Group Manager/s:

Jonathan Gibbard, Group Manager - Environmental Services, on 31 August 2021

 

Whakarāpopototanga / Executive summary

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has released ‘Climate Change 2021: the physical science basis’, as part of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

The report compiles recent scientific understandings of climate science and presents modelling of emissions scenarios to give projections of global warming and its impacts on earth systems, climate and weather. The report contains four main sections: A. Current state of the climate, B. Possible climate futures, C. Climate information for risk assessment and regional adaptation, and D. Limiting future change.

Improvements in scientific methodology have increased the ability to track global temperatures and climate impact-drivers, which show that the world is already experiencing significant impacts from climate change. Scientific advances also mean that the resolution of modelling and projections can give greater detail about the degree and timing of warming and associated climate impacts. New future emissions scenarios are presented (called shared socio-economic pathways) that enable climate impacts to be modelled both over time as well as for different regions across the globe.

The report shows that without rapid decarbonisation and negative emissions by atmospheric carbon removal, by 2040 humanity is likely to use up the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to under 1.5o above pre-industrial global temperatures, and by 2060, to under 2o. This is likely to result in increased extreme weather, heatwaves, sea level rise and drought across the world, with the degree of warming directly related to the amount of future greenhouse gas emissions. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres called the report a ‘Code Red’ for humanity.

The report is one of three working group reports that will be released prior to the AR6 synthesis report in September 2022.

 

 

Ngā mahi tūtohutia / Recommended actions

1.         That staff undertake assessments of the implications of the AR6 report for council and report to the next Climate Change Working Party meeting

 

Background/Tuhinga

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released an important document that forms part of the Sixth Assessment report (AR6)[1]. ‘The Physical Science Basis’ is the contribution from the IPCC’s Working Group I, a group of 244 authors drawn from 66 countries. There are an additional 517 contributing authors, over 14,000 cited references and over 78,000 expert and government review comments.

Assessment reports are generally released every 5-7 years, and have contributions from thousands of scientists, authors and reviewers. The previous report AR5, released in 2014, is the basis for much of our current climate change projections, including NIWA’s 2016 ‘Climate impacts and implications in Northland’ report[2], and Ministry for the Environment guidance on sea level rise and coastal hazards[3], which help guide regional coastal hazards mapping.

The AR6 Working Group I report addresses the most updated physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science, and combining multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, global and regional climate simulations. It shows how and why climate has changed to date, and the improved understanding of human influence on a wider range of climate characteristics, including extreme events. There is a focus on regional information that can be used for climate risk assessments.

The report shows some changes from the previous AR5 report. Attempts have been made to better integrate knowledge and evidence from different scientific disciplines into focussed chapters. More regional information is given, which can help develop regional risk assessments. There are also changes to the methodologies and terminology used in modelling of future emissions scenarios and  pathways. In the Fifth Assessment Report, four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used to simulate future climate change. This time the IPCC uses Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) that look at a greater range of options / scenarios. There’s a greater focus on lower degrees of warming because of these scenarios. Levels of warming like 1.5°C and 2°C can be assessed more rigorously than in AR5.

Notably, the language from scientists has become more certain, urgent and solutions-oriented. While the underlying message may not have changed much since the AR5 report, advances in science mean that uncertainty has been reduced, and the resolution and predictive power of models has improved. This generally tells us a more detailed, but no less grim, picture of the direction we are headed under the current regime of global carbon management policies, but also shows that we have an opportunity to reverse the current trends with determination and dedicated leadership.

The report contains four major sections.

A.    The current state of the climate

Human influence on global temperature rise is ‘unequivocal’, causing widespread, unprecedented changes in various earth systems, resulting in extremes of weather and climate. One example is the observed increase in the rate of sea level rise from 1.3mm/yr (1901-1971), to 1.9mm/yr (1971-2006), to 3.7mm/yr (2006-2019). New calculations for the earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity - the amount of long-term warming resulting from a doubling of CO2 levels - is now estimated to be 3o Celsius.

B.    Possible climate futures

Five emissions scenarios are presented as a result of intercomparisons between a large number of leading global climate models. These are called SSP’s – Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.[4] Each describes a different emissions trajectory, ranging from very low (SSP1-1.9 - immediate reductions including net negative emissions shortly after 2050), to very high (SSP5-8.5 - a constant rise in emissions, peaking just before 2100). All scenarios project continued warming until at least 2050, with 1.5o warming above 1900 levels reached by 2040 in all scenarios, and 2o reached by 2060 in all but two scenarios. Global changes such as extreme weather, heatwaves and reduction in snow cover are amplified by increased warming, with an intensification of the wet and dry events in the global water cycle. In addition, the ability for land and ocean to uptake CO2 will be increasingly limited. Major changes to earth systems including oceans and cryosphere are likely to be irreversible for centuries to millennia.

Global mean sea level is ‘virtually certain’ to continue rising over the 21st century, the rate dependent on global emissions. There is limited evidence for high-impact, low-likelihood outcomes resulting from the crossing of systems thresholds causing Antarctic ice-sheet collapse; sea level rise of up to 5m by 2150 ‘cannot be ruled out’ under a high emissions scenario.

C.    Climate information for risk assessment and regional adaptation

Natural variability in climate systems will continue to interact with human-caused warming in the short and medium-term, and should be considered in planning. With an increase in global heating, ‘climate impact-drivers’ (physical climate system conditions such as means, events and extremes, for different categories including heat/cold, wet/dry, wind, snow/ice, coastal/ocean) will increasingly and concurrently affect regions around the world. This will likely result in increased glacial/ice melting and extreme heat; heavy rain and flooding; agricultural and ecological drought; and sea level rise and coastal flooding/erosion. Compound events where multiple climate impact-drivers intersect are also increasingly likely, such as extreme fire weather, heatwaves with drought, and combined coastal/fluvial flooding. Low-likelihood/high-consequence events carry high risks for human and ecological systems and need to be considered in risk assessments.

D.    Limiting future change

There is a linear relationship between the amount of greenhouse gases emitted and the level of global heating caused. For every 1000 Gt CO2 emitted, the global temperature is expected to increase by 0.45o, implying not only that net-zero emissions are required to stabilise temperatures, but that to limit warming to a specific level (as in the Paris Agreement) there is a finite budget of greenhouse gases we will be able to emit. If current annual global CO2 emissions (~35Gt/yr) continue unabated, after 12 years we will have used up the remaining carbon budget required to limit global heating to 1.5o (i.e. global temperatures exceeding 1.5o will be more likely than not). Removal of carbon from the atmosphere (CDR) to achieve negative emissions, thereby reducing total atmospheric CO2, is technically feasible and is included in the very-low and low-emissions SSP emissions scenarios. Rapid reductions in emissions, as portrayed in very low- and low-emissions scenarios, can result in discernible effects on greenhouse gases and air quality in the short to medium term.

Future reports to be released as part of the IPCC’s AR6 include the Working Group II report ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, which will focus on complex risks, adaptation, regional focus chapters and cross-sectoral issues. AR6 will also include the Working Group III report ‘Mitigation of Climate Change’ which addresses sustainable development, the intersection of mitigation and adaptation, and associated risks and opportunities. In September 2022, the IPCC will also release a synthesis report which will include the three working group reports as well as three previously released IPCC special reports, ‘Global warming of 1.5o’, ‘Climate Change and Land’ and ‘Oceans and the cryosphere in a changing climate’.

Implications for Northland

It is likely that in light of updated projections contained in AR6, councils will need to review some of the climate projections we currently use. Given the recent release of the report, a detailed analysis has not yet taken place, although there are indications that the updated projections are more extreme than data currently used by Northland councils. For instance, the sea level rise values used in NRC's coastal hazards mapping for 2080 (0.6m) used the 'RCP 8.5M' emissions scenario. At the time of the AR5 report, this scenario represented a 'business as usual' case where the burning of fossil fuels continued largely unabated with very high greenhouse gas concentrations to 2100 and beyond. However, a quick look at the AR6 sea level rise projections (AR6 WGI Summary for Policy makers, p29, table d) shows that 0.6m by 2080 is projected to take place in emissions scenarios SSP2, SSP3 and SSP5 (i.e. all but the two lowest emissions scenarios). Staff anticipate that there will be other difference in projections of climate impact-drivers such as mean temperature, heatwaves, rainfall intensity, wind, and drought.

The recently released coastal hazard maps use sea level rise values taken from the IPCC's previous AR5 report, as referenced in the Ministry for the Environment 'Coastal hazards and climate change; guidance for local government' (2017). Over the next 1-2 years, sea level rise values for New Zealand will be updated by NIWA using the recent data from global climate models and published in an updated MfE guidance document. While the current sea level rise values used in the regional hazard maps for coastal erosion and coastal flooding will eventually require updating, they represent the best available data for Northland at the present time. Compared to AR6 sea level rise values, the levels used in NRC's current hazard maps appear to have more likelihood of occurring than previously thought, thus reinforcing the need to bring them into the statutory planning regime as soon as possible. NRC’s approach is to update hazard maps as new data becomes available - updates will be completed within five years of the recent map release, giving adequate time for the recent data to be provided at the regional scale.

Once updated regional climate projections have been finalised, these will need to be assessed against current settings in relevant council policies and standards such as engineering design standards and hazard maps. 

 

 

Ngā tapirihanga / Attachments

Attachment 1: IPCC_AR6_WGI_Summary for Policymakers

Attachment 2: IPCC_AR6_WGI_Headline_Statements  

 


Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.6

8 September 2021Attachment 1

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Climate Change Working Party  ITEM: 4.6

8 September 2021Attachment 2

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Climate Change Working Party                                                                                                                                  item: 4.7

8 September 2021

 

TITLE:

Verbal updates

From:

Erica Wade, Personal Assistant Environmental Services

Authorised by Group Manager/s:

Jonathan Gibbard, Group Manager - Environmental Services, on date 31 August 2021

 

 

 

A verbal progress update will be provided to the Climate Change Working Party by Jan van der Vliet (Natural Hazards Advisor) on the following topics:

1.    Coastal hazard maps feedback

2.    Deep south challenge research project

 



[1] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/

[2] https://www.nrc.govt.nz/environment/climate-change/climate-change-in-northland/useful-resources

[3] https://environment.govt.nz/publications/coastal-hazards-and-climate-change-guidance-for-local-government/

[4] Shared Socioeconomic Pathways include SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP3-4.5, SSP5-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. SSP’s refer to the projected ways in which society achieves projected levels of emissions, and will be examined in detail in a future IPCC report. The number following the hyphen (e.g. SSP1-1.9) relates to the ‘radiative forcing’ – that is, the amount of additional warming (measured in Watts per m2 of earth surface) as a result of the combination of greenhouse gases in the model.